The Verdict: Man City vs Bournemouth

Manchester City open their home campaign as heavy favourites against a Bournemouth side that will need something close to a perfect defensive performance to leave with anything.

The model gives City a 65.9% win probability against Bournemouth's 15.6%, with a draw sitting at 18.5% — numbers that reflect both City's squad quality and the historical difficulty of beating them at the Etihad.

Our lean: City win comfortably, likely 2-0, with the main uncertainty being whether they properly turn the screw or ease off once the game is put to bed early.