Real Madrid's class on the road told in the end, just as the model suggested it would — but this was a considerably closer contest than a 68.6% win probability implied going in.
Espanyol pushed Madrid throughout, and the final 2-1 scoreline reflects a genuine contest rather than the formality many expected. Madrid's quality proved decisive, but Espanyol's approach — staying compact, making Madrid work for every yard — was exactly the right idea, just not quite enough to get a result from it.
For Madrid, three points is three points on opening weekend, but this is a performance worth reviewing rather than simply filing as a routine win.